Way Too Early Predictions

In which your humble correspondent handicaps the presidential primaries for 2028.

Is it too early to think about the 2028 presidential election?

I guess I’m a little like the college football prognosticators who put out those “Too Early Top 25” rankings about five minutes after the bowl season ends but as a practical matter, the primary season will begin in about two years and any candidate serious about running will need to start making fundraising and policy decisions mid to late next year.

I’ll start with the Republican side, mostly because the options and the paths those people have are narrower and a bit more predictable.

My overwhelming pick is Vice President J.D. Vance.

The political version of the Triple Crown is his to lose. Given his performance so far, he has shown independence while sticking to the Trump agenda, he is an effective and fearless spokesman for US policy abroad, he has strong relationships from his time in the Senate, and by the time it is needed, he will have had contact with every major independent and organizational member of the Republican donor base. Trump has taken off the leash and let Vance operate on his own, even in a room with the President in attendance (remember Le Affaire Zelenskyy in the Oval?).

In my opinion, Vance is also on track to become the most consequential VP since Dick Cheney or Richard Nixon, both of whom turned the Office of Spare President into an engine for creation, reshaping and execution of US policy – Cheney more than Nixon.

Next in line?

Marco Rubio. Like Vance, Rubio has been let off the chain – and with the backing of President Trump, Little Marco has turned into Big Bad Marco, staunch defender of the American Way. We are seeing a forceful, steadfast, aggressive Secretary of State, one that has no problem handing Congressional Democrats there asses in hearings, something I never expected Rubio to be. Rubio has pretty much everything Vance has except the office. A Vance-Rubio ticket is a real possibility.

One big, unavoidable change is that this will be the first election in twelve years that Donald J. Trump won’t be on any ballot and that, in and of itself, is significant. For the past decade plus, Democrats have run against Trump instead of producing a party platform built from planks of things most of their people want. The proof in that statement is in the fact that their party is sub-thirty percent in approval and their leadership is sub-twenty percent – in the sixteen percent range.

So, they won’t have The Don to kick around anymore and that changes the game for the Dems.

Now for the dog’s breakfast that is the Democrat Party.

A poll by Atlas Intel, released on May 30, showed the number one choice of Democrats is Mayor Pete, followed by Sandy Cortez at #2 and Kamala Harris at #3. Several other polls conducted earlier in May had Kamala Harris as numero uno, but to be honest, I don’t see any of the top three winning a bruising primary, which this one is likely to be – especially if J.B. Pritzker throws his substantial girth and wallet in the ring.

In this latest poll, Cory Booker at #4. Behind Booker is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Every one of these potentials has significant flaws – from the ability to raise money to the ability to coherently speak without making a massive word salad.

Buttigieg was ineffective as a mayor and a Secretary of Transportation. He’s now trying to tack to the center, but he is a light as a feather on policy. Aggressive is not a word I would use to describe Petey. He’s basically a gay Obama in whiteface.

Sandy Cortez? Unseriousness built out of boobs and attitude. While Chuck Schumer represents the old guard, the “Yeah, I’m a leftist Democrat but I’m not nuts” wing, AOC is the new generation that believes you must be nuts to be a Democrat – and she might just be right. Sandy is this month’s centerfold of Democratic Socialist Revolutionary Magazine, that’s it.

Harris? Not a chance. She missed her billion-and-a-half-dollar opportunity after they shanked Biden last year. She isn’t even a has been, she is destined to be a never was.

Newsom, Whitmer and Shapiro. All a “maybe”.

Newsom has California’s failures smeared all over his body, but the dude can be personable in a slick used car salesman kind of way. He has such a flexible personality and value system; he can slip into moderate territory faster than changing into one of his $5000 bespoke suits.

Whitmer? She is smart and cunning enough to help the FBI set up a kidnapping. Don’t count her out in the Dem primary, but I do not think Cruella can win at the top of the ticket in a national election – she might be a VP pick, however.

Shapiro? I thought Shapiro was going to be Harris’ choice for VP – and he should have been. Well liked in Pennsylvania but has seemed to be a bit of a shrinking violet on the national stage since Kamala didn’t pick him and he still has a little #MeToo baggage from his alleged role in a $295K sexual harassment settlement involving one of his closest aides back in 2023.

One not mentioned but could be a dark horse (no pun intended) is Wes Moore, the current governor of Maryland – assuming he can raise the money. Moore has a compelling backstory, is a POC, is smart, and seems to be from the “not crazy” camp.

One big factor is Pritzker. While he has not declared and has no chance, he is making noises like he wants to run. His immense personal wealth could really complicate the primary for candidates without the dry powder to stay in for the long haul. His run would make everything more expensive for everybody in the field.

In the “way too early’ view, I think it is some mix of Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer and Wes Moore – there is a Democrat presidential and a vice-presidential candidate somewhere in that group.

I think the biggest problem for any of the Democrats is the challenge of making the general electorate forget that every one of these people knew Biden’s brain had turned to pudding and also get everybody to disregard the past twenty years of complete social engineering insanity that cost a hell of a lot and did nothing to solve any of the problems they were claimed to solve – going all the way back to Obamacare.

So, who you got?